[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 08 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels with numerous weak to mid-level C-class flares observed from Region 2339 (N13E41, Fkc/beta-gamma). The largest flare of the period was a C5/1n observed at 08/0409 UTC with weak to moderate discrete frequency radio emissions. This region maintained its magnetic complexity with growth observed in the trailer spots and some separation noted within its intermediate spots.

A C1 x-ray event was observed at 08/0808 UTC from an area just beyond the NE limb. The remaining six spotted regions exhibited little change. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong) flare, over the next three days (08-10 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (08-10 May) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period barring any significant activity from Region 2339.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions at the ACE spacecraft reflected the trailing end of a CME passage. Bt began the period elevated to 10 nT, but declined to an end-of-period reading of 6 nT. Bz was positive to +8 nT through 07/2125 UTC when the component showed variability between +5 to -4 nT. Wind speed was steady at about 415 km/s through about 07/2100 UTC when a decline in speeds to near 375 km/s was observed. The phi angle was in a mostly positive (away) orientation through 07/2125 UTC when a sector change to a negative (towards) orientation was observed. Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are expected through the forecast period (08-10 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet levels with an isolated period of unsettled conditions early on 08 May.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for the next three days (08-10 May) as ambient solar wind conditions set in.

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