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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 10 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2339 (N13E14, Fkc/beta-gamma) continued slight penumbral decay of its intermediate spots this period, but still produced multiple weak C-class activity, including a long-duration C1/Sf flare at 10/0829 UTC. Region 2335 (S15W53, Cso/beta) decayed significantly during the period as many of its trailer spots dissipated. Region 2342 (N18E54,Cso/beta) showed continued minor growth early in the period, primarily in its leader spots. The remaining regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay.
During the period, two filament eruptions occurred from the NE quadrant. The most notable eruption occurred between 09/1947-2129 UTC. It was 23 degrees in extent and centered at approximately N27E51 as reported by a ground solar observatory. Both filament eruptions were also observed in SDO/AIA and GONG/H-alpha imagery and appeared to be reabsorbed. No resultant coronal mass ejections (CME) were noted in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery as a result of this activity.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flares over the next three days (10-12 May) due to the flare potential of Region 2339.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels over the next three days (10-12 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over the next three days (10-12 May).
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind velocity ranged from 348-429 km/s throughout the period. IMF total field ranged between 1-9 nT and the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT. The phi angle began the period in a negative (towards) solar sector orientation, but transitioned sharply to a positive (away) sector after 09/1500 UTC. The phi angle began a gradual transition back towards a negative sector at approximately 11/0800 UTC.
Forecast: An ambient solar wind environment is expected to persist on day one (10 May) and through the majority of day two (11 May). A solar wind enhancement is expected late on day two through day three (12-13 May) due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels this period under a nominal solar wind regime.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to return to mostly quiet conditions on day one (10 May) and through most of day two (11 May). Unsettled to active conditions are expected late on day two with the onset of a CIR followed by unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on day three (12 May) due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 May 10 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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