[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2349 (S20W56, Cao/beta) showed signs of decay as the trailer spots lost their penumbra, while the regions magnetic footprint remained simple, but slightly stretched. Region 2353 (N07W38, Dao/beta) was relatively stable as it lost penumbral coverage around its trailer spots, while the leader spots consolidated and gained penumbral area. Region 2355 (S10E35, Cao/beta) lost spots in its trailer polarity; and the other two regions remained fairly stable.

At about 24/1245 UTC, SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed an eruptive prominence from the SW limb. At 24/1325 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed an associated narrow, slow-moving coronal mass ejection (CME). This CME does not appear to be on a Sun-Earth line due to its location on or behind the limb. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed this period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity over the next three days (25-27 May), primarily from Regions 2349 and 2353.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (25-27 May) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE satellite, indicated ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds were generally steady with an average speed of about 340 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was undisturbed and averaged primarily between 2-4 nT. The Bz component varied between north and south orientations with a maximum negative deviation of -4 nT. The phi angle was predominately in a negative (towards) sector with brief, intermittent periods of positive (away) deflections after 25/0100 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels over the next three days (25-27 May) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet levels over the next three days (25-27 May) as Earth is expected to remain under the influence of an ambient solar wind environment.

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