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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 28 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare was observed from the southeast limb. Some new spot regions rotated onto the visible disk in the northeast (N11E63, N13E52) and southeast [S11E60) and are being monitored for potential numbering. There was a small filament eruption in the southeast near S38E45 but is not expected to impact Earth. There are three large filaments on the visible disk that bear watching.
A type-II radio sweep (Est. 493 km/s) was reported at 27/1234 UTC, with no associated significant X-ray event. Once SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery became available, a CME was observed erupting from the northeast limb at 27/1325 UTC. This event appeared to be correlated with an eruption on SDO/AIA 193 imagery on the northeast limb and is not expected to be geoeffective. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on available LASCO imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a growing chance for C-class activity over the next three days (28-30 May). Day three is also forecast to have a slight change for a M-class (R1-minor) solar flare event, as old region 2339 is expected to return to the visible disk.
Energetic Particles
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal background levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at predominately normal background levels over the next two days (28-29 May), with an increasing chance of moderate levels on day three (30 May) due to elevated solar winds from a high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated a continued ambient wind environment. Solar wind speed was between 320 and 340 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was between 5 nT and 7 nT while the Bz component mostly varied between -6 to +6 nT. The phi angle switched several times between a negative (toward) to a positive (away) orientation throughout the period.
Forecast: An equatorial, positive polarity, coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moves into a geoeffective position over the next three days (28-30 May), bringing enhanced solar wind conditions. Peak solar wind speed is forecast near 500 km/s and the brunt of the effects are expected on day two.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field remained at quiet to unsettled levels.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet to unsettled conditions on day one (28 May) as an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. By day two (29 May) active conditions are possible. Day three is forecast to see a return of quiet to unsettled levels, as CH HSS effects begin to wane.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 May 28 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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