[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. New spots emerged and decayed repeatedly within Region 2356 (S16E26, Cso/beta) but despite this magnetic instability, the regions overall structure and complexity changed little during the period. Region 2357 (N09E28, Axx/alpha) decreased in spots and lost its bipolar configuration. An active region noted in GOES/SXI imagery was just rotating into view along the east limb (S05E90) as of the time of this discussion. This region was responsible for a B6 flare noted at 30/2203 UTC and SDO/HMI Intensitygrams also indicated the likely presence of spots.

The nearly 50 degree long, NE-SW aligned filament along the solar sector boundary in the NW quadrant of the visible disc became active after 30/2300 UTC as observed in SDO/AIA and GONG/H-alpha imagery. Material appeared to undergo primarily lateral transfer, however, some material slowly disappeared and was likely reabsorbed. No evidence of a coronal mass ejection (CME) was seen in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery in relation to the filament agitation. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for isolated C-flares for the forecast period (31 May-02 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels for the forecast period (31 May-02 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters decreased to nominal levels as measured by the ACE satellite. Solar wind speed started the period at an average speed of about 400 km/s and decreased to about 350 km/s by the periods end. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 1 nT to 6 nT, but was most frequently steady from 4 nT to 5nT. The Bz component was variable between north and south deviations, with a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at or near nominal levels for the forecast period (31 May-02 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the forecast period (31 May-02 Jun).

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