[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2356 (S16E13, Hax/alpha) continued its trend of repeated new spot emergence and decay, and shifted between unipolar and bipolar magnetic configurations. Although this suggested some magnetic instability, the region remained inactive. Region 2357 (N09E08) decayed and Region 2358 (S03E64, Hax/alpha) remained stable. An active region just around the NE limb, located at approximately N13, was noted in GOES/SXI imagery and produced a B6 flare at 01/0340 UTC, the largest flare of the period.

The filament disappearance from the NE quadrant discussed in the previous report was likely reabsorbed and non-eruptive as subsequent analysis of all available imagery did not reveal any related coronal mass ejection (CME). Analysis of the CME first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 31/1536 UTC was likely a back-sided event beyond the NE limb and not geoeffective. Another CME first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 01/0848 UTC, with a very similar eruptive signature, also appeared to originate from beyond the NE limb and not on the Sun-Earth line. No Earth-directed CMEs were noted in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery.

01/0848 UTC Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for isolated C-flares for the forecast period (01-03 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels for the forecast period (01-03 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued at near nominal levels. Solar wind experienced a period of variable and slightly enhanced speed from about 31/1400-2200 UTC that peaked at nearly 400 km/s. After 31/2200 UTC, solar wind speed dropped back to more steady and ambient speeds between 335 km/s and 375 km/s. Total magnetic field strength increased slightly from near 5 nT to around 8 nT with the enhancement in solar wind, suggestive of a weak transient feature. The Bz component fluctuated between north and south deviations prior to 31/2200 UTC before deflecting to a more sustained and frequent negative orientation afterwards that peaked at about -6 nT. The phi angle remained oriented in a positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at or near nominal levels for the forecast period (01-03 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the forecast period (01-03 Jun).

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation