[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2361 (N16E58, Dao/beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2/Sf at 04/1519 UTC. Growth in the region was noted in the trailer and intermediate spots during the later half of the period. A new area of spot development was observed near N05W08 and will be numbered if the region maintains its growth. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery off the SE limb, but was not Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares over the next 3 days (05-07 Jun), primarily due to the flare potential from Regions 2360 and 2361.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels for the forecast period (05-07 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at the ACE satellite continued at nominal levels. Solar wind speed remained low through the period ranging from around 250 km/s to 300 km/s. Total magnetic field strength remained steady between 2-4 nT. The Bz component was variable with a predominant northward orientation. The phi angle remained positive (away from the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels for day one (05 Jun). Days 2 and 3 (06-07 Jun) are expected to show one or more solar sector boundary crossings (SSBC) based on an examination of recurrence data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels through day one (05 Jun). Days 2 and 3 (06-07 Jun) are likely to see quiet to unsettled levels due to multiple recurrent SSBCs.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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