[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2361 (N16E42, Dai/beta) produced a few C-class events during the period including a long duration C1/Sf flare at 06/0712 UTC. The region gained penumbral coverage in the trailer spots and grew rudimentary penumbra in its intermediate spots, but remained in a magnetically simple bipolar configuration. Region 2362 (N07E47, Dac/beta) gained penumbral area in the trailer and intermediate spots, but remained quiet. All other previously spotted regions remained stable or underwent decay. New Regions 2364 (S07E70, Bxo/beta) and 2365 (S12E70, Cao/beta) rotated onto the SE limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares over the next 3 days (06-08 Jun), primarily due to the flare potential from Regions 2361 and 2362.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels for the forecast period (06-08 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at the ACE satellite continued at nominal levels. Solar wind speeds began the period averaging about 275 km/s through about 06/0100 UTC when a slow, steady increase to near 330 km/s was observed through periods end. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was steady at about 4 nT through about 05/2100 UTC and ended the period at 8 nT. The Bz component was variable between +/- 2 nT through 06/0200 UTC and ended the period variable between +/- 7 nT. The phi angle remained predominately in a positive orientation (away from the Sun) with a brief period of negative (toward the Sun) orientation between 06/0222-0350 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels for most of day one (06 Jun) before solar sector boundary crossings (SSBC), as noted in recurrence data, on days two and three (07-08 Jun) are likely to cause changes in the solar wind and magnetic field.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06-07 Jun). Day 3 (08 Jun) is likely to see quiet to active levels due to multiple recurrent SSBCs.

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