[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at low levels. Weak C-class flares were observed from Regions 2360 (N15W11, Eac/beta-gamma) and 2362 (N06E20, Dao/beta). Region 2360 continued to exhibit growth within its intermediate and trailer spots and maintained a weak beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The remaining regions were little changed and quiet, or underwent some decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares over the next 3 days (08-10 Jun), primarily due to the flare potential from the growing and more magnetically complex Region 2360. Regions 2361 and 2362 are also likely contributors to flare potential despite their decay, as they lie along a magnetically unstable section of the solar sector boundary.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels through days 1 and 2 (08-09 Jun), and are likely to increase to moderate to high levels on day 3 (10 Jun) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at the ACE satellite reflected the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) signature after 08/1740 UTC; this in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly nominal conditions existed at the beginning of the period with wind speeds averaging 340 km/s, total field ranging between 9-13 nT and the Bz component northward to +13 nT. The phi angle was predominately in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

After 08/1740 UTC, phi angle shifted to a steady negative (towards the Sun) orientation. Wind speeds began a gradual increase from about 365 km/s to end the period near 665 km/s. Bt climbed to a maximum value of near 23 nT by 08/0505 UTC while the Bz component rotated between +16 nT at 08/0606 UTC to -21 nT at 08/0505 UTC. Low energy particles were observed increasing through the period as well.

Forecast: For the remainder of day one (08 Jun) through day two (09 Jun), further increases in solar wind speeds are expected as Earth connects with the negative polarity CH HSS. By day three (10 Jun), solar wind parameters are expected to relax as CH HSS effects slowly wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels through 07/2400 UTC with active to major storm (G2-moderate) levels for the remainder of the period. This increase in activity was due to sustained periods of negative Bz coupled with increased solar wind speeds, all associated with a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels for the remainder of day one (08 Jun) as Earth is impacted by the CIR. By day two (09 Jun), the geomagnetic field is likely to remain agitated as Earth connects with the negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to minor storm (G1-minor) levels are expected. Day three (10 Jun) is likely to see unsettled to active conditions as Earth remains under the waning influence of the CH HSS.

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