[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2376 (N13E52, Eao/beta-gamma) produced a pair of C1 flares at 30/1243 UTC and 30/2211 UTC, respectively. The region exhibited slight growth in its leader portion. Region 2373 (N17E32, Dao/beta) underwent some minor growth in its trailer spots, but was inactive and remained in a fairly stable bipolar configuration. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed on available LASCO imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity for days one through three (01 - 03 Jul) primarily due to the slightly higher flare potential of Region 2376.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 9,667 pfu observed at 30/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at moderate to high levels over the next three days (01 - 03 Jul). 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over days one through three (01 - 03 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds generally ranged between about 360 to 385 km/s with a gradual increase to near 435 km/s by periods end. IMF total field strength ranged between 1-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +3 nT to -4 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive (away) solar sector with negative (towards) orientation observed from about 30/1400-2100 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mostly nominal on days one through three (01 - 03 Jul). A minor enhancement may be reflected from the influence of a small positive polarity coronal hole late on day one (01 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one through three (01 - 03 Jul). Isolated periods of unsettled activity are possible in response to a small positive polarity coronal hole on day one (01 Jul).

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