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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 07 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2381 (N14E23, Ekc/beta-gamma) grew early in the period, as it gained penumbral area in the lead spots, however the region showed signs of decay later in the period as the intermediate penumbral spot began to combine with the leader, while the trailer spots lost penumbral coverage. The region also stretched further in longitudinal extent without any evidence of increased magnetic shear. Despite these signs of dissipation, the region retained some weak magnetic mixing and was unstable as it produced numerous C-class flares and the largest flare of the period, an M1/2n at 06/2040 UTC.
An active surge region became visible just beyond the SE limb in SDO/AIA 304 imagery and GOES-15/SXI X-ray imagery. This active region appeared to be a contributor to a series of C-class flares that began about 06/1526 UTC through 06/1702 UTC. This same regions activity may have been related to a coronal mass ejection (CME) first noted in SOHO/LASCO C-2 coronagraph imagery at 06/1524 UTC. Analysis of all available imagery indicates this CME was south and east of the Earths orbital plane.
All other regions on the disk were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) activity over the next three days (07-09 Jul), particularly from instability of Region 2381 and the active surge region rotating onto the SE limb.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the period (07-09 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained indicative of weakening coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds were variable primarily between 450-500 km/s through most of the period. A brief intensification in speed from 550-600 km/s occurred between about 07/0230-0251 UTC, after which speeds dropped back to around 450-475 km/s. IMF total field values ranged from about 3-7 nT and the Bz component was variable between -4 nT and 4nT. The phi component was primarily in a negative (towards) orientation.
Forecast: A return to an ambient solar wind environment is expected on day one (07 Jul) and remain undisturbed throughout days two and three (08-09 Jul).
Geospace
24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic field conditions were quiet to unsettled during the period as CH HSS effects continued to subside.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels throughout the period (07-09 Jul).
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Jul 07 20:07 UTC]()
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