[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with only one C-class flare during the period. Region 2381 (N15W05, Eko/beta) decreased in area and total spots. The region also became less magnetically complex, however, despite the decay, the region produced a C1/Sf flare at 09/0337 UTC. The remaining seven regions were generally stable or in slow decay.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were detected in available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (09-11 Jul) primarily due to the minor instability of Region 2381 as it slowly weakens.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels throughout the period (09-11 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were representative of mainly nominal conditions. Solar wind speeds were variable, but averaged primarily between 350-380 km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total field values ranged from 1-5 nT. The Bz component varied between north and south orientations and had a maximum negative deflection of -4 nT. The phi angle remained primarily in a negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: An ambient solar wind environment is expected to continue on day one (09 Jul). A recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to be preceded by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) mid to late on day two (10 Jul), increasing the solar wind and enhancing the total field. The peak of the high speed stream is forecast for the early hours of day three (11 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic field conditions were quiet to unsettled under a primarily ambient solar wind and IMF environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels the remainder of day one (09 Jul). Late on day two (10 Jul), the onset of the CIR ahead of the positive polarity, CH HSS will likely produce periods of active conditions. The geomagnetic field is expected to become further disturbed on day three (11 Jul), with G1 (Minor) storming levels likely due to CH HSS effects.

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