[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest flare of the period was a B5 flare at 16/2111 UTC from Region 2387 (N17E54, Dai/beta). Slight growth was observed in the intermediate spot area of Region 2387. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.

Ground observatories reported a 22 degree filament eruption, centered near N39E36 at 16/1453-1643 UTC. The eruption was also evident in GONG H-alpha imagery and SDO/AIA 304 and 193 imagery between 16/13-18 UTC. Analysis of available coronagraph imagery suggests an earth-directed component is unlikely as the ejecta was moving well north of the ecliptic. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (17-19 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels levels with a maximum flux of 4280 pfu at 16/1455 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (17-19 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed was in decline over the period from approximately 520 km/s to near 400 km/s. Total field was between 1 nT and 5 nT with the Bz component between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Near ambient solar wind conditions are expected to persist, with occasional solar sector boundary changes, through 18 Jul. A trans-equatorial positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective by day three (19 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the forecast period (17-19 Jul) with a chance for an isolated active period on 19 Jul in conjunction with the approach of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

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