[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2390 (S15W00, Dac/beta-gamma) showed penumbral growth in its leader, trailer and intermediate spots but remained quiet. Region 2389 (S10E34, Dai/beta-gamma) was stable over the last 24 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with an increasing chance for C-class activity through the forecast period (26-28 Jul). The forecasted increase in activity is primarily due to the continued growth of 2390 coupled with the return of old active Region 2381 (N15, L=076) on 26 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at moderate levels with a peak flux of 994 pfu observed at 25/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (26-28 Jul) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind environment due to a geoeffective, weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds generally ranged between 390 to 505 km/s. The IMF total field strength (Bt) ranged from 5 to 7 nT while the Bz component did not vary much beyond +5 to -6 nT. Phi angle remained in a predominately positive (away) sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Weakening CH HSS effects are expected through the remainder of day one (26 Jul) and into day two (27 Jul). Mid to late on day three (28 Jul), another positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position resulting in a return to enhanced solar wind conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high latitude active periods.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of day one (26 Jul) and into day two (27 Jul) as CH HSS effects begin to subside. Mid to late on day three (28 Jul), another positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions.

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