[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to an impulsive C1 flare observed at 26/1234 UTC from Region 2389 (S12E24, Cai/beta). The region continued to show decay in its intermediate and trailer spots although it showed some development in its leader portion. Region 2390 (S17W13, Dac/beta-gamma) showed slight growth during the past 24 hours but remained quiet. New Region 2391 (N05E69, Hsx/alpha) was numbered today. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (27-29 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased to high levels with a peak flux of 1,109 pfu observed at 26/1855 UTC but decreased sharply to normal levels by 27/0200 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (27-29 Jul) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a slightly disturbed environment. Solar wind speeds increased from about 405 km/s to near 550 km/s. The IMF total field strength (Bt) ranged from 2-7 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-6 nT. Phi angle remained in a positive (away) sector for the majority of the period with some small deviations into the negative sector.

Forecast: A return to a nominal solar wind environment is expected for day one (27 Jul) through midday on day two (28 Jul). Mid to late on 28 Jul and through day three (29 Jul), a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to move into a geoeffective position resulting in enhanced solar wind conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active period from 27/0900-1200 UTC due to an extended period of negative Bz.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions with a possible isolated active period are expected for day one (27 Jul) and through midday on day two (28 Jul). Mid to late on 28 Jul and through day three (29 Jul), a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected for the later half of 28 Jul with unsettled to active conditions expected on 29 Jul.

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