[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2390 (S15W46, Dao/beta) continued its slow decay, losing most of its intermediate spots, and was inactive. New Regions 2393 (N16E52, Cro/beta) and 2394 (N12E72, Hsx/alpha) were numbered during the period. Region 2393 exhibited slight growth as it rotated further onto the visible disk. The remaining numbered regions remained stable and inactive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed in available coronagraph imagery this period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (30 Jul-01 Aug) as most of the regions remain relatively stable.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 523 pfu observed at 29/1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on all three days (30 Jul-01 Aug), while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind parameters continued to indicate a near-ambient solar wind environment. Wind speeds decreased at a slow, yet steady pace from near 380 km/s at the beginning of the period, to end-of-period speeds near 340 km/s. The IMF total field strength fluctuated between 1-6 nT, while the Bz component was variable between +3 and -4 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominantly positive (away) sector with occasional oscillations into a negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Ambient solar wind conditions are expected through day one (30 Jul). An increase in solar wind speed is expected late on day two (31 Jul) due to effects of an anticipated co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day three (01 Aug) due to continued CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under an ambient solar wind environment.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day one (30 Jul). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected initially on two (31 Jul) until late in the period when conditions are expected to increase to G1 (minor) storm levels due to CIR and CH HSS effects. G1 levels are expected again on day three (01 Aug) as CH HSS influences continue.

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