[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. An unnumbered region behind the southeastern limb produced a long-duration B7 flare that began at 02/2120 UTC and peaked at 02/2243 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 02/2148 UTC but was not Earth-directed. Regions 2391 (N07W17, Axx/alpha) and 2393 (N18W01, Hax/alpha) both showed signs of decay. New Region 2395 (N11E70, Hsx/alpha) was numbered during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (03-05 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with an observed peak flux of 720 pfu at 02/1855 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (03-05 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced under the waning influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds decreased overall from about 600 km/s to near 475 km/s by periods end. Total field ranged between 4 nT to 6 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately negative (towards) sector throughout the period.

Forecast: A slow decline towards background levels is expected during the next three days as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03-04 Aug) as CH HSS activity subsides. Mostly quiet levels are expected on day three (05 Aug).

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