[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2396 (S18E35, Dkc/beta-gamma) continued to develop with consolidation and growth in the leader spot, an increase in intermediate spot count and area, and penumbral growth in the trailer spot. Despite the complexity increase, Region 2396 only produced low B-class X-ray activity over the past 24 hours. All other regions exhibited no notable changes.

A filament centered near N32W17, approximately 16 degree-long, was observed lifting off in GONG H-Alpha imagery from around 04/1402 - 1645 UTC. Analysis of available LASCO and STEREO coronagraph imagery indicated the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) had a trajectory well north of the Sun-Earth plane. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on LASCO imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to increase to low levels, with a slight chance M-class flares (R1 Minor) over the next three days (05-07 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period with an observed peak flux of 1662 pfu at 04/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for days one and two (05-06 Aug), then decrease to low levels with the arrival of the anticipated co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and subsequent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) on day three (7 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected mostly ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds continued to decrease, dropping from around 430 km/s to around 380 km/s by the end of the period. Bt remained around 5 nT while Bz fluctuated between -4 nT and +5 nT. Phi remained predominantly in the negative sector (towards).

Forecast: Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to continue on day one (05 Aug). Late on day two (06 Aug) solar wind speed, density, and total magnetic field are expected to become enhanced with the arrival of a CIR, ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS that is expected on day three (07 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under mostly ambient solar wind conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (05 Aug). An increase to unsettled to active levels is likely by day two (06 Aug) with the arrival of the CIR, then increase to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels on day three (07 Aug) with the arrival of the anticipated CH HSS.

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