[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2396 (S18E08, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced a C4 flare at 07/0357 UTC, the largest of the period. The region continued to grow in area with most of the activity occurring among the intermediate spots. All other regions on the solar disk were stable or in decay. No Earth-direct CMEs were observed on available LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1 Minor) over the next three days (07-09 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (07 Aug - 08 Aug). By day three (09 Aug), the influence of another positive polarity coronal hole is expected to produce lower levels of electron flux values during stronger geomagnetic responses. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) during the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters measured at the ACE spacecraft were enhanced by the positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Wind speeds were between between 500-600 km/s at the beginning of the period and tapered down to just below 500 km/s by the end of the period. Total magnetic field remained enhanced with values between 4-11 nT. Bz was predominantly southward with the most significant deflection reaching -7 nT observed around 07/0800 UTC. Phi angle remained in the positive (Away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced on day one (07 Aug) under the influence of the CH HSS. Day two (08 Aug) should see solar wind speeds decreasing slightly, but remain elevated, as a result of continued CH HSS effects. Day three (09 Aug) should see conditions increase slightly towards the end of the period as the next positive polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position, further enhancing wind speeds and total field.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. An isolated period of G1 (Minor) conditions were observed as the magnetosphere responded to a prolonged southward Bz component of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during the 06-09 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels early on day one (07 Aug). Isolated periods of minor (G1-Minor) storming are possible in response to the CH HSS. Day two (08 Aug) should see conditions return to mostly unsettled levels, with isolated active intervals early in the day. Late on day three (09 Aug), conditions are expected to increase to active levels, with minor (G1-Minor) storm conditions possible before the end of the period.

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