[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2403 (S14E16, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two M-class flares during the period. The first was an M1/1n at 21/2034 UTC and the second was an M1/1b at 22/0646 UTC. Associated with the 22/0646 UTC flare was coronal dimming in SDO/AIA 193 imagery, a Type IV radio sweep, and a Type II radio sweep depicting a shock speed of 1149 km/s. Region 2403 exhibited growth in the umbral area in both the leader and trailer spot while continuing to develop its intermediate spots. Region 2404 (N14E06, Cro/beta) remained simple and inactive through the period. We are awaiting further SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery to analyze for a suspected coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the 22/0646 UTC flare.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for further M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flaring for the next three days (22-24 Aug) due to flare potential from Region 2403.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 9,116 pfu at 21/1830 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (22-24 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, began the period slightly enhanced conditions. Velocities were around 450 km/s, total magnetic field was at 5 nT, and phi predominantly positive (away). After 21/2100 UTC, winds began to slowly decline to 350 km/s by the end of the period. After 22/0800 UTC, the phi angle began to trend towards negative (towards) and total magnetic field trended upwards to near 10 nT by 22/1030 UTC. Bz was variable between +/-4 nT with a predominantly southward component after 22/0200 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at slightly enhanced levels through early on day two (23 Aug) when a positive polarity, equatorial coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become geoeffective. Solar wind speeds and total magnetic field are expected to become enhanced. Activity is expected to persist into day three (24 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Aug). Early on day two (23 Aug), conditions are expected to increase in response to the influence of positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective. G1 (Minor) storm periods will be likely with this event. Quiet to active conditions are anticipated for day three (24 Aug) as the high speed stream persists.

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