[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 24 1250 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 24 1250 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2403 (S15W12, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M5/1b flare at 24/0733 UTC, the largest of the period. The region continued its growth, increasing in area and number of spots. Region 2404 (N14W25, Cro/beta) exhibited decay in its intermediate and trailer spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) for the forecast period due to the flare potential of Region 2403.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels through day three (24-26 Aug) due to combined coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and CME effects. A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) exists on days two and three (25-26 Aug) as Region 2403 transits into a more geoeffective location.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced by a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Total magnetic field began the period around 10 nT then decreased around 23/1315 UTC to below 5 nT. Wind speeds were between 550 - 600 km/s until after 23/2000 UTC, when they began to slow, reaching around 450 km/s by the end of the period. Phi remained predominantly positive (away) over the day.

Forecast: A further enhancement in solar wind parameters is expected mid to late on day one (24 Aug) with the arrival of a combination of the 21 and 22 Aug CMEs. Solar wind speeds will likely increase above 600 km/s with the arrival of the CMEs. Activity is expected to persist into day two (25 Aug) with a slow decline by day three (26 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active levels at the beginning of the period under the influence of the CH HSS. Activity declined to unsettled levels after 23/1500 UTC in response to the decrease in total magnetic field dropping below 5 nT early in the period.

Forecast: CH HSS activity is expected to persist through day one (24 Aug). Later on day one, an anticipated arrival of the 21/22 Aug CMEs will likely cause unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions. Quiet to active levels are expected to persist through day three (25-26 Aug) as the CH HSS and CME influence gradually wane.

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