[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 31 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2403 (S15W92, Dao/beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2 flare at 31/0522 UTC, as it rotated around the west limb. All other regions remained simple and inactive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on day one (31 Aug) with a chance for M-class flares (R1-Minor). Activity is expected to decrease on days two and three (01-02 Sep) to only a chance for C-class flares as Region 2403 rotates around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 1900 pfu at 31/1155 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on days one and two (31 Aug - 01 Sep). A decrease to normal to moderate levels are expected on day three (02 Sep) as an anticipated positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) increases geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated a return to mostly ambient conditions from the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind velocities began the period around 440 km/s and gradually decreased to around 400 km/s. Total field remained around 5 nT and Bz was variable between -3 nT and 5 nT. Phi remained predominantly negative (towards) throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to remain near ambient conditions until the arrival of an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) ahead of a CH HSS on day two (01 Sep). Continued enhancement in wind velocity is expected on day three (02 Sep) as the influence of the HSS persists.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels until day two (01 Sep) when the field is expected to see activity increase to G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of the CH HSS becoming geoeffective. The potential for G1 (Minor) storm levels is likely to persist into day three (02 Sep).

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