[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2409 (N03E20, Cro/beta) underwent slight decay but produced the largest flare of the period, a B4/Sf flare at 04/0518 UTC. Region 2410 (S19E20, Bxo/beta) remained stable and inactive. A new spotted group has rotated onto the visible disk near N14E75; however, further analysis and spot group reports are needed before assigning a SWPC region number.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) first visible in coronagraph imagery near 03/1200 UTC was observed leaving the southwestern portion of the disk. Analysis of AIA/STEREO imagery indicated that this event was associated with far-sided activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on day one (04 Sep), followed by normal to high levels on day two (05 Sep). Normal to moderate levels are expected to return on day three (06 Sep) with coronal holes 96 and 97 moving into a geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind parameters measured at the ACE spacecraft reflected positive polarity CH HSS effects from CH95. Solar wind velocities generally ranged from 400-450 km/s with brief, isolated peaks near 550 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was primarily between 8-11 nT, but reached as high as 13 nT. The Bz component oscillated and reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT. The phi angle remained positive.

Forecast: The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day three (04-06 Sep) due to multiple CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was predominantly at unsettled to active levels with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, over the next three days (04-06 Sep) due to the various CH HSS influences.

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