[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with no reportable x-ray activity observed. Both Regions 2409 (N04W09, Cro/beta) and 2411 (N14E44, Cso/beta) developed trailer spots during the period. New Region 2412 (S08E64, Cao/beta) emerged on the disk. A 20 degree long filament, centered near N22E63, was observed erupting in the NE quadrant between 06/0410-0832 UTC. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (06-08 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak value of 3,190 pfu observed at 05/1840 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one and three (06, 08 Sep) with normal to moderate flux levels likely on day two (07 Sep) in response to slightly elevated geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of residual coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speeds varied between 400-525 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field strength ranged between 6-9 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. The phi angle remained in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation throughout most of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on day two (07 Sep) in response to the influence of a weak positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds near 500-550 km/s are expected as the CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Slightly elevated solar wind parameters are likely on days one and three (06, 08 Sep) due to subsiding CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was primarily at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active conditions observed between 05/1800-2100 UTC, which was attributed to sub-storming.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06, 08 Sep) under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to active field conditions are expected on day two (07 Sep) due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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