[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low with C-class flare activity observed exclusively from Region 2415 (S22E20, Cai/beta-gamma). Region 2415 exhibited growth in its leader and intermediate spots while the other spotted regions on the disk were stable or in slight decay. New Region 2419 (N14E57, Bxo/beta) was numbered and showed overall growth in spots and area, but was inactive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: There is a chance for C-class flares for day one (15 Sep) followed by a decreasing threat to a slight chance for C-class activity on days two and three (16-17 Sep), as 2414 moves towards the west limb and continues to decay.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (15-17 Sep) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds began the period averaging near 500 km/s until 15/0800 UTC when winds increased to the 520-540 km/s range, and reached as high as 560 km/s by periods end. Bt was steady in the 6-8 nT range while Bz indicated more variability with a maximum southward extent of -7 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive (away from the Sun) orientation throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (15 Sep) due to the (CH HSS). Wind speeds are expected to increase to near 600 km/s. Solar wind speeds are likely to remain slightly enhanced on day two (16 Sep),before beginning to wane on day three (17 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to active, with an isolated period of minor storm conditions between 14/1500-14/1800, as the result of the onset of the CH HSS. Active conditions followed the minor storm before returning to unsettled conditions by the end of the period.

Forecast: Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are anticipated again on day one (15 Sep) due to continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. The proximity to autumnal equinox suggests that the effects of the positive polarity feature should produce slightly more enhanced effects at Earth. By day two (16 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active period are expected as CH HSS effects begin to wane. Day three (17 Sep) should see the return to near ambient background conditions.

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