[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity increased to moderate levels during the period. Region 2315 (S20W08, Eac/beta-gamma) again produced most of the activity, including the largest flare of the period, an M1/Sf at 17/0940 UTC. The region grew slightly in areal coverage and exhibited shearing in its intermediate spots. Region 2419 (N12E29, Dao/beta) showed slight growth in overall coverage and its trailer spots. Region 2418 (S16E24, Hhx/alpha) grew slightly but remained stable and in a unipolar magnetic configuration.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were visible in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels over the next three days (17-19 Sep) with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares primarily due to the increased complexity of Region 2415.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 8050 pfu at 16/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels over the next three days (17-19 Sep), while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters remained indicative of waning coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds remained relatively elevated but stable in the 450-480 km/s range. The IMF remained in a nominal state with the total field strength mainly between 3-6 nT and the Bz component was variable with maximum southward deflections of -5 nT. The phi angle was in a positive (away from Sun) orientation through the period.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to continue at slightly elevated velocities on day one (17 Sep) as CH HSS effects wane. However, a slight enhancement may be possible on days two and three (18-19 Sep) as a brief connection with a small, negative polarity CH HSS may be possible.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled through most of the period with isolated periods of active conditions.

Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain unsettled to active on day one (17 Sep). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (18-19 Sep) as CH HSS effects further diminish and nominal conditions return.

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