[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity returned to very low levels, with only a few B-class flares occurring over the period from Region 2420 (N10E56, Ekc/beta-gamma). Slight decay was observed in the smaller intermediate and trailing spots in Region 2415 (S18W75, Dso/beta). New Region 2421 (N15E42, Bxo/beta) was numbered but was inactive.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares over the forecast period (22-24 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at normal background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (22-23 Sep) followed by an increase to high levels on day three (24 Sep) due to a combination of coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and CME influences. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels for days one and two (22-23 Sep), before Region 2415 rotates off the west limb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated residual waning positive polarity CH HSS effects and an enhancement possibly caused by a transient feature. Solar wind velocities increased from around 520 km/s early in the period to over 650 km/s near 22/0200 UTC. Bt began the period near 5nT before increasing to 10nT at 22/0250 UTC. Bz was primarily positive early in the period, then began to vary after 22/0000 UTC with a maximum deflection of -5nT. Phi angle was positive through the first half of the period before switching to a negative orientation for the second half.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (22-23 Sep) due to waning CH HSS influences and a possible shock reflection from a CME from 20 Sep. Day three (24 Sep) should see a return to near ambient background solar wind conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the forecast period (22-24 Sep) due to waning CH HSS effects as well as a possible reflection from the 20 Sep CME.

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