[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at low levels with Region 2422 (S20E04, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) producing all of the low level C-flare activity. The largest flare of the period was a C1/Sf at 26/0129 UTC. Moderate growth and consolidation was observed in the intermediate and trailing area of Region 2422. A small delta formed within the intermediate area as well. Region 2421 (N17W14, Dac/beta) grew slightly over the period. The rest of the spotted regions were relatively stable.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares over the forecast period (26-28 Sep). An increase in the chance for M-class flare activity since last period is primarily due to growth and increased magnetic complexity in Region 2422.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 636 pfu observed at 25/1515 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (26-28 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels for days one through three (26-28 Sep).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be slightly enhanced with solar wind speeds mostly between 406 km/s and 503 km/s. Total field ranged from 2 nT to 7 nT with the Bz component mostly positive between +5 nT and -4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at current conditions through day one (26 Sep). Days two and three (27-28 Sep) are expected to see a slight decrease in wind speeds.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the forecast period (26-28 Sep).

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