[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 04 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels when old Region 2422 (S20, L=097) produced an M1 flare from around the west limb at 04/0241 UTC. Region 2427 (N19W44, Dac/beta-gamma) is the lone region remaining on the disk. It showed slight growth in its intermediate spots but remained relatively quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares all three days (04-06 Oct) and a slight chance for an M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare on day one (04 Oct) as both Region 2420 and 2422 complete their transit across the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels during the period while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (04-05 Oct). Moderate to high levels are possible by day three (06 Oct) after passage of the 30 Sep CME and subsequent enhanced solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the S1-Minor threshold.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced throughout the period. Solar wind velocity increased from around 370 km/s to near 475 km/s. Total field strength (Bt) ranged between 6-10 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 8 nT and remained largely negative after 04/0000 UTC. The phi angle remained in a predominantly positive (away from the Sun) sector with some brief periods of negative (toward the Sun) orientation between 03/1650-1910 UTC.

Forecast: There was no clear indication of the arrival of the 30 Sep CME, therefore further enhancements in solar wind speeds are possible on day one (04 Oct). Enhancements are expected to continue through day two (05 Oct) with a slow return to nominal levels throughout day three (06 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels due to substorming and prolonged negative Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with periods of minor storming (G1-Minor) likely to continue on day one (04 Oct), due to the possible arrival of the 30 Sep CME. Conditions are likely to continue at unsettled to active levels throughout day two (05 Oct) due to residual CME effects. By day three (06 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels are expected as CME effects wane.

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