[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 24 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity increased to low levels due to a long duration C1 x-ray event observed at 24/0455 UTC from Region 2488 (N04E06, Dai/beta). The region continued to exhibit minor growth with an overall increase in both spot count and areal coverage. Region 2487 (S12W11, Cao/beta) indicated little change and was quiet and stable while Region 2486 (S19W16) decayed to plage.

At 24/0824 UTC, a B5 x-ray event was observed from an enhanced area of brightening on the SE limb as viewed in GOES-15 SXI imagery. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (24-26 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,118 pfu observed at 23/1815 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one and two (24-25 Jan) with normal to moderate levels expected on day three (26 Jan) due to onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the weakening influence of a southern pole-connected negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed began the period at around 575 km/s but slowly decreased to around 450 km/s by about 24/2000 UTC. Through the remainder of the period, wind speeds varied between 450-475 km/s. IMF total field strength values (Bt) generally ranged between 1-7 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT at around 24/0135 UTC. The phi angle was in a predominately negative (toward) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to return to near-background levels on days one and two (24-25 Jan) as the effects of a negative polarity CH HSS subside. Mid-to-late on day three (26 Jan), the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to cause another minor solar wind enhancement.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period due to continued, but weakening, CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24-25 Jan) under the return of a nominal solar wind regime. The onset of a northern pole-connected positive polarity CH HSS on day three (26 Jan) is expected to cause quiet to unsettled levels with periods of active (Below G1-Minor) field conditions.

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