[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 28 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2488 (N04W49, Dai/beta-gamma) grew further as it developed new spots just northeast of the leader spot; while the original trailer spots east of the leader underwent some dissipation. The new spots northeast of the leader are opposite polarities and caused magnetic mixing amongst the group. This coupled with the weak shear present due to the new N-S aligned magnetic field, created additional stressed magnetic field lines. This instability may have been a cause for the three C-flares the Region produced later in the period; a C5 at 28/0523 UTC and a C2 at 28/0702 UTC. The largest flare of the period was still in progress as of this report, but appeared to reach maximum intensity at the C9 level as of 28/1200 UTC.

Region 2489 (N09E20, Dki/beta) grew further and produced a C1/Sf at 27/1330 UTC. Some of the spots just east of and adjacent to the leader spot combined with the leader penumbra. This shifting configuration increased its size, but likely reduced magnetic tension due to a decreased magnetic gradient. Region 2490 (S18E35, Dro/beta) changed little over the period, but managed a few B-class and optical subflares. Region 2487 (S12W71) decayed into plage.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flare activity over the next three days (28-30 Jan), primarily due to the increased magnetic shear in Region 2488 and the configuration variance of Region 2489.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at moderate levels through the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels over the next three days (28-30 Jan) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (28-30 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) environment. Solar wind speed was variable, but ranged primarily from 325-385 km/s. The IMF strength was slightly enhanced and averaged predominantly between 6 to 9 nT. The Bz component was variable, but had a prolonged period of southward orientation from 28/0537-0950 UTC and reached a maximum deflection of -7 nT. The phi angle was positive (away from Sun) most of the period, with a short deviation to a negative (towards the Sun) sector between approximately 28/0600-0815 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to enhance further on day one (28 Jan) as Earth is likely to connect with an extension of a positive polarity, northern pole-connected CH HSS. Conditions should remain elevated into day two (29 Jan) with higher wind speeds likely. Conditions are expected to taper off late on day two and into day three (30 Jan) as the CH HSS rotates out of a geoeffective position and effects begin to subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, but reached unsettled levels later in the period, primarily in response to the slightly enhanced IMF environment and prolonged periods of southward Bz component.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one through three (28-30 Jan), with isolated active periods expected on days one and two (28-29 Jan) in response to expected CH HSS effects.

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