[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity increased to low levels due to an impulsive C1 x-ray event observed at 01/0114 UTC from a source region just beyond the NE limb and just to the north of new Region 2491 (N01E63, Cao/beta). This source region was also responsible for an impulsive B9 x-ray event observed at 01/0336 UTC. The largest region on the disk, Region 2489 (N10W37, Cho/beta) produced a B4 x-ray event at 31/1601 UTC and remained in steady decay losing a majority of its trailer spots. Region 2490 (S21W23, Bxo/beta), as well as new Region 2491, were both quiet and stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (01-03 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at normal levels over the next three days (01-03 Feb) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected an ambient solar wind environment. Solar wind speed began the period at about 265 km/s and slowly increased to near 315 km/s by 31/2200 UTC. After that, wind speeds were steady averaging about 325 km/s through periods end with some isolated peaks to 365 km/s. Total field (Bt) values ranged between 6-11 nT while the Bz component was in a steady southward direction through 01/0803 UTC, reaching a maximum of -9 nT at 31/2109 UTC. The phi angle was highly variable between a positive (away) and negative (towards) solar sector orientation through 01/0803 UTC.

At 01/0804 UTC, a solar sector boundary change was observed. Bt approached 11 nT while Bz turned sharply north to +5 nT and remained north through periods end. Solar sector orientation rotated to a steady positive sector for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels through the remainder of day one (01 Feb) through midday on day two (02 Feb). By midday to late on 02 Feb, solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced due to the onset of a positive polarity, equatorial coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Enhanced winds are expected to persist through day three (03 Feb) due to CH HSS effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period with quiet conditions, but reached unsettled to active levels late on 31 January due to prolonged southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active intervals, for the remainder of day one (01 Feb) through day two (02 Feb). The onset of a positive polarity, equatorial CH HSS is expected to cause periods of active field conditions on day three (03 Feb).

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