[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 09 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 flare at 09/0601 UTC which was associated with an approximately 9 degree long filament eruption centered near N06W34. An additional 24 degree long filament, centered near N22E18, became active after 08/1800 UTC and began to disappear around 08/2000 UTC. Forecasters are awaiting additional satellite imagery to determine if either of the CMEs from these eruptive events contain an Earth-directed component.

The only other significant flare activity was a B7/Sf flare at 08/1618 UTC from Region 2492 (N14W26, Cro/beta). Region 2492 showed signs of growth in its leader spot group. Region 2494 (S12W50, Dai/beta-gamma) lost areal coverage in its intermediate spots and continued to decay. Region 2497 (N13E29, Dao/beta) displayed indications of spot group consolidation in its leader group and growth in its trailer and intermediate spots. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with occasional C-class flares likely and a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) all three days (09-11 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (09-11 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters were indicative of waning CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed began the period at about 430 km/s, before decreasing at 08/1430 UTC to speeds between 375-400 km/s. At approximately 09/0000 wind speed began a steady increase to 450 km/s towards the end of the period. Total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1 and 5 nT until about 08/2300 UTC, when it steadily increased to 14 nT. The Bz component was predominately positive until 09/0730 UTC when it displayed a prolonged period of southward deflection until the end of the period. The phi angle was primarily negative (towards the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to decrease as the negative polarity CH HSS influences wane on day one (09 Feb), however an enhancement is likely due to an anticipated arrival of a glancing blow CME (from 05 Feb). CME influences are expected to decrease on day two (10 Feb), with a trend towards ambient solar wind and IMF levels by day three (11 Feb). Later on day three, another enhancement is likely due to the approach of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated period of active conditions during the 09/0900-1200 UTC synoptic period. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels for a few synoptic periods on day one (09 Feb) in response to CME effects. Day two (10 Feb) is expected to experience some unsettled levels of geomagnetic response as CME effects wane. Day three (11 Feb) is expected to see a return to quiet conditions for most of the day, until late in the day when geomagnetic response is expected to reach unsettled to active levels due to an approaching CIR ahead of the positive polarity CH HSS.

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