[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a C1/Sf flare at 10/1522 UTC from Region 2497 (N13E01, Eac/beta-gamma). Region 2497 provided additional B-class level flaring and a decrease in areal coverage. Region 2496 (N08W16, Bxo/beta) produced multiple B5/Sf flares at 10/2048 UTC and 10/2235 UTC. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with C-class flares likely on days one and two (11-12 Feb), decreasing to a chance for C-class flares on day three (13 Feb). Region 2497 is likely to be the primary contributor. Region 2494 will rotate to and beyond the W limb on days two into three (12-13 Feb), allowing for decreasing whole-disk flare probability; contingent upon no strengthening or increased complexity within Region 2497.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on day one (11 Feb), before decreasing to normal levels on days two and three (12-13 Feb) as a CIR followed by a CH HSS redistributes electrons. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days (11-13 Feb).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters were indicative of decreased CME effects and a return towards more background-like conditions. Solar wind speed varied between 350-400 km/s during the first portion of the reporting period, decreasing to steady values of approximately 325 km/s during the later half of the period. Total field (Bt) ranged between 3 and 7 nT, while the Bz component was in a negative orientation throughout the period, reaching a low of -6 nT. The phi angle was negative (towards the Sun) for the duration of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue trending towards background speeds and IMF strength through most of day one (11 Feb), before the IMF becomes slightly disturbed due to a pending solar sector boundary change (SSBC) and an approaching CIR and CH HSS. Day two (12 Feb) is expected to see increasing wind speeds and a disturbed IMF due to a passing CIR, followed by a positive polarity CH HSS. Day three (13 Feb) is expected to see waning solar wind speeds as CH HSS effects begin to diminish later in the day.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions during the 11/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (11 Feb) due to slightly elevated solar wind speeds and periods of prolonged southward orientation. An expected SSBC later on day one may also cause an unsettled geomagnetic response. An incoming CIR followed by connection to the positive polarity CH HSS, is expected to cause a few periods of active levels on day two (12 Feb), with mainly unsettled to quiet conditions shortly afterwards. Day three (13 Feb) is expected to experience quiet to unsettled levels as the CH HSS effects begin waning.

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