[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2497 (N13W28, Fac/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for multiple C-flares over the period. The largest was a C6/Sf flare at 12/1721 UTC. Slight decay was observed in the smaller intermediate and trailing spots of Region 2497, however it still retained its magnetic complexity. The rest of the spotted regions were in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (13-15 Feb) due primarily to the flare potential of Region 2497.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and three (13 & 15 Feb) with the potential to reach high levels on day two (14 Feb). There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 levels over the next three days (13-15 Feb) due to the complexity and position of Region 2497.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a solar sector boundary change into a positive (away) sector around 13/0150 UTC. followed by a weak increase solar wind speed and temperature, possibly indicative of a weak CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from near 350 km/s early in the period to around 400-420 km/s. Total field was elevated between 10 nT and 20 nT with the Bz component mostly north between -14 nT and 18 nT.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected remain slightly enhanced on day one (13 Feb). Day two (14 Feb) is likely to see enhancement in solar wind speeds and total field strength in response to the anticipated onset of the 11 Feb CME late on day two to early on day three (15 Feb). Enhanced conditions are expected to persist through day three.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, possibly under the influence of a weak CH HSS late in the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of day one (13 Feb) due to continued weak CH HSS effects. Day two (14 Feb) is expected to reach minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to the onset of the anticipated 11 Feb CME late in the day. Unsettled to (G1) minor storm levels are expected to continue into day three (15 Feb) as CME effects persist.

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