[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest flare of the period was a B5/Sf at 21/1304 UTC from Region 2505 (N08W53, Dac/beta). Slight decay was observed in the smaller intermediate spots of Region 2505 with consolidation occurring in the trailing spots. Region 2504 (N13W38, Axx/alpha) continued to decay and Region 2501 (N05W25, Hsx/alpha) was stable. At 21/1200 UTC, a partial-halo CME was observed in coronagraph imagery. The event was correlated with backsided flaring first observed in STEREO-A EUVI 195 imagery at 21/1125 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with C-class activity likely and a slight chance for an M-flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for the forecast period (22-24 Feb) due primarily to the flare potential of Region 2505.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at high levels with a peak flux of 21,837 pfu observed at 21/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (22-24 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speeds between 314 km/s and 366 km/s. Total field increased from 3 nT to near 7 nT while the Bz component varied between +6 nT and -3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly negative (towards) orientation until around 22/1000 UTC when it deflected to a positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are expected for a majority of the forecast period (22-24 Feb). Late on 24 February, phi angle is expected to rotate into a steady positive orientation with a gradual increase in wind speeds. This is due to an expected positive polarity coronal hole extension off the northern crown rotating into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet conditions for the next three days (22-24 Feb). Unsettled conditions are expected late on 24 February due to the onset of a weak, positive polarity CH HSS.

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