[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 28 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2506 (S06W01, Dai/beta) produced only low level B-class x-ray activity. A region of emerging flux was observed near N07E08. Further observation will determine if an active region number is assigned. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (28 Feb - 01 Mar).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (28-29 Feb), decaying to normal levels by day three (01 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, reflected a nominal conditions. Bt was between 4-6 nT. The Bz component of the IMF was predominantly northward. Solar wind speeds were relatively steady, averaging around 370 km/s. Phi angle was oriented in the positive sector for the past 24 hours.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to persist at mostly nominal levels on days one and two (28-29 Feb). By day three (01 Mar), solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced due to the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole extension off of the northern crown. Wind speeds are expected to increase to about 500-550 km/s due to CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels on days one and two (28-29 Feb). Day three (01 Mar) is expected to see an increase to unsettled levels, with isolated periods of active conditions, in response to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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