|
Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 04 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels as Region 2506 (S06W71, Cro/beta) produced a C1 flare at 04/0900 UTC, despite a continued decaying trend as it edged closer to the western limb. Regions 2510 (N05E37, Cro/beta) and 2513 (N12E55, Hsx/alpha) both remained predominantly stable. However, Region 2510 was responsible for a B5 flare at 03/1550 UTC. New Region 2514 was numbered during the period as it developed both leader and trailer spots over the past 24 hours. The remaining numbered regions were unremarkable and inactive.
Between 03/1500-1700 UTC, an approximately 6 degree filament centered near S05E02 disappeared as observed in GONG/H-alpha imagery. Analysis is ongoing to determine if there is an Earth-directed component to the associated CME.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity on day one (04 Mar), increasing to a chance for C-flares for days two and three (05-06 Mar).
Energetic Particles
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on days one through three (04-06 Mar) due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, reflected waning CH HSS influences. Total field strength remained steady at 5 nT, while Bz was variable between 4 nT and -5 nT. Solar wind reached a peak speed of 468 km/s early in the period, before steadily decreasing to near 380 km/s by periods end. The phi angle remained primarily positive.
Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain in a predominantly nominal state for the remainder of day one into day two (04-05 Mar). Conditions are expected to increase to unsettled levels later on day two (05 Mar) due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions are expected to enhance further on day three (06 Mar) due to the CH HSS.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with an isolated unsettled period during the 04/0000-0300 UTC time frame.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels until late on day one (04 Mar) when an increase to unsettled to active levels is expected due to the approaching CIR. Geomagnetic response is expected to continue at predominantly unsettled levels, with isolated periods of active levels on day two (05 Mar) due to the to the arrival of a CIR and subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions are likely to escalate to G1-Minor levels for a brief period later in the day of day three (06 Mar) due to CH HSS effects.
Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/
Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/
If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx
Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!
Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g
We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr
![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2016 Mar 04 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
|