[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 06 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flares were observed this period. Region 2512 (N11W30, Hrx/alpha) exhibited minor development late in the period and produced multiple low-level B-class flares in quick succession. New Region 2517 (N24W31, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period but was otherwise unremarkable. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay.

An episode of coronal dimming was observed in the vicinity of Region 2514 (N14W32) at around 06/0500 UTC in SDO/AIA 193 imagery and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 06/0548 UTC. The CME appeared to be directed north of the Sun-Earth line, however, additional analysis will be conducted before ruling out an Earth-directed component. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (06-08 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on day one (06 Mar) and high levels on days two and three (07-08 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (06-08 Mar).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the likely onset of a co-rotating interaction region preceding a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds were steady between 340-380 km/s throughout the period. IMF total field strength (Bt) values steadily increased from 5 nT early in the period to 17 nT by the end of the period and Bz remained mostly northward throughout the period. The phi angle slowly transitioned from a positive solar sector orientation to a negative orientation throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced late on day one through day three (06-08 Mar) due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely late on day one (06 Mar) due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active levels are expected on day two (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (08 Mar) as CH HSS influence begins to subside.

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