[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 10 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low with an active region just beyond the east limb producing the only C-class flare during the period, a C3 flare at 09/1250 UTC. There were five numbered spot regions on the visible disk during the period and all were either stable or in decay. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available imagery over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (10-12 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,761 pfu at 09/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on all three days of the forecast period (10-12 Mar), while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds began the period near 380 km/s, but steadily decreased to end-of-period values near 330 km/s. IMF total field strength (Bt) remained steady between 4 nT and 6 nT, while Bz was mostly negative, averaging near -4 nT. The phi angle was mostly negative throughout the period, with a brief period in the positive sector from 10/0400-0900 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to reflect background conditions over the next two days (10-11 Mar). Minor enhancements are expected on day three (12 Mar) due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (10-11 Mar) with isolated unsettled periods on day one, as a result of prolonged, but weak, southward Bz. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (12 Mar) due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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