[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2526 (S05W29, Hsx/alpha) produced several low level B-class flares but remained nondescript and stable. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare throughout the forecast period (01-03 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one and two (01-02 Apr) in response to recent CH HSS influence. Day three (03 Apr) is likely to see normal levels due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days (01-03 Apr).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were suggestive of nominal solar wind conditions. Wind speed began the period near 440 km/s and showed a steady decline to end the period near 390 km/s. The total field (Bt) was steady at approximately 4 nT while Bz was predominately north. Phi angle was oriented in a positive sector until 01/0800 UTC when it became variable, toggling back and forth between negative and positive positions.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain at background levels for the majority of day one (01 Apr). The anticipated arrival of a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS should create a solar wind enhancement late in the day. Days two and three (02-03 Apr) are expected to see persistent CH HSS effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet most of day one (01 Apr). Late in the day, the geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active due to the arrival of an expected SSBC and CIR. Day two (02 Apr) is likely to reach G1-Minor storming levels, with a chance for an isolated period of G2-Moderate storming due to influences from the CIR and subsequent CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for G1-Minor storming is expected on day three (03 Apr), due to continued CH HSS effects.

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