[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flares were observed. Region 2526 (S05W54, Hsx/alpha), the only spotted region on the disk, was stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (03-05 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels with a peak of 626 pfu observed at 02/1640 UTC, but quickly decreased to normal levels shortly thereafter due the increased geomagnetic field activity.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and two (03-04 Apr) in response to an enhanced solar wind environment. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected on day three (05 Apr) due to another anticipated enhancement in geomagnetic field activity.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (03-05 Apr).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS beginning beginning around 02/1330 UTC. Solar wind speeds began a steady increase from the mid-300s to near 550 km/s by about 02/2130 UTC. After that, wind speeds slowly decreased to near 400 km/s by periods end. Bt reached a peak of 18 nT at around 02/1406 UTC and Bz briefly reached a maximum southward component of -14 nT at 02/1552 UTC. The phi angle transitioned from a positive (away) solar sector orientation to a negative (toward) solar sector at 02/1330 UTC where it remained for the rest of the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually relax for the remainder of day one (03 Apr) through day two (04 Apr) as CH HSS effects subside with solar wind parameters returning to near-background levels. The onset of another negative polarity CH HSS early on day three (05 Apr) is expected to cause another minor solar wind enhancement.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled early in the period, but the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS increased field activity to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels beginning at 02/1724 UTC followed by G2 (Moderate) storm levels observed during the 02/2100-2400 UTC period. Field conditions decreased to unsettled to active through the remainder of the period. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels through the remainder of day one (03 Apr) due to the continued, but waning, influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (04 Apr) as CH HSS effects continue to subside. Quiet to active field activity is expected on day three (05 Apr) due to the influence of another negative polarity CH HSS.

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