[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2529 (N09E22, Eki/beta) produced multiple low level C-class flares throughout the period. Despite this increase in activity, Region 2529 showed indications of slight decay in its intermediate spots and slowed growth in its larger leader spot. Region 2530 (N15W17, Cso/beta) was absent of significant flare activity while displaying signs of slight decay.

Other activity included two CMEs off of the south and east limbs that combined to produce a partial halo CME signature. Activity is first visible in LASCO/C2 imagery at 12/0224 UTC. A Type II (215 km/s) radio sweep occurred beginning at 12/0153 UTC and is believed to be associated with this event. Forecaster analysis determined that it is far-sided activity as there is a large filament eruption visible in STEREO EUVI imagery near the same times. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (12-14 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels over the next two days (12-13 Apr) and increasing to normal to moderate levels by day three (14 Apr) as a result of an enhanced solar wind environment. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period in a nominal state, before an SSBC occurred near the mid-point of the period, ahead of the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Wind speed averaged near 360 km/s then became increased to near 450 km/s before periods end. Total field strength ranged between 3 and 11 nT while the Bz component was variable with a maximum southward deflection at -7 nT. Phi angle orientation was in a predominately positive sector until the mid-point of the period when it switched to negative orientation for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced late on day one (12 Apr). The onset of a negative polarity CH HSS late on 12 Apr and persisting through day three (14 Apr). A possible weak glancing blow from the 10 Apr CME should couple with this tapering CH HSS late on 13 Apr keeping the solar wind environment enhanced into day three.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, under a nominal solar wind environment, until late on day one (12 Apr). Active levels are expected late on day one increasing to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms for days two and three (13-14 Apr). This enhancement is due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible weak glancing blow from the 10 Apr CME late on 13 Apr.

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