[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels with one C-class flare reported during the period. Region 2529 (N09W06, Eko/beta) produced an impulsive C2 flare at 13/2343 UTC, as well as multiple B-class flares, despite its continued trend of slight decay. Region 2530 (N15W45, Hrx/alpha) lost its trailer spots and simplified into a unipolar spot group. New Region 2531 (N14E53, Axx/alpha) was numbered today but has not produced significant flare activity and displayed a simple magnetic structure. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flare activity (R1-Minor to R2-Moderate), all three days (14-16 Apr), due to the flare potential of Region 2529.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, reaching a max flux value of 4,307 pfu at 13/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels for the duration of the forecast period (14-16 Apr) due to influences from the recent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters suggested continued CH HSS influences and an additional enhancement near 14/0700 UTC due to possible impact from the 10 April CME. Total field (Bt) was nominal early, then increased to 10 nT and remained steady after 14/0700 UTC. The Bz component varied and reached a prolonged southward deflection of -8 nT for the last 4 hours of the reporting period. Solar wind speed started near 600 km/s then gradually decreased down to 460 km/s by periods end. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (14 Apr) due to continued influence of the isolated, negative polarity CH HSS and a possible glancing blow of the 10 Apr CME. A return to a near background solar wind environment is expected on days two and three (15-16 Apr) as CH HSS subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly at quiet to active levels, with an isolated period of G1-Minor storm levels during the 14/09-12 UTC synoptic period, due to negative polarity CH HSS effects and late impacts from a possible transient feature.

Forecast: G1-Minor geomagnetic storming conditions are expected on day one (14 Apr) due to combined effects from the CH HSS and possible glancing blow influence from the 10 Apr CME. Quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active conditions is expected on day two (15 Apr) as CH HSS effects begin to wane. Day three (16 Apr) should see quiet to unsettled conditions with near background conditions.

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