[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C1/Sf at 14/1332 UTC from Region 2529 (N10W19, Eki/beta). This region was responsible for additional C-class flaring and developed spots in its intermediate area. Region 2531 (N14E39, Axx/alpha) remained a simple unipolar group with no notable growth or decay. Region 2530 (N14W59, Axx/alpha) was absent of significant flare activity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the period. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flare activity (R1-Minor to R2-Moderate), all three days (15-17 Apr), due to the flare potential of Region 2529.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, reaching a max flux value of 5,141 pfu at 14/1405 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to high levels for the duration of the forecast period (15-17 Apr) due to influences from the recent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period under the influence of the 10 April CME, then gradually decreased to near background conditions. Solar wind speeds started near 450 km/s then gradually decreased to approximately 360 km/s by periods end. Total field (Bt) began the period near 10 nT and decreased to 4 nT by the end of the reporting period. The Bz component was southward until near 15/0100 UTC when it switched northward for the remainder of the period. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: A gradual return to a near background solar wind environment is expected throughout the forecast period (15-17 Apr) CME effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated period of G1-Minor storm conditions during the 14/0900-1200 UTC synoptic period, due to a combination of waning negative polarity CH HSS effects and a prolonged period of -Bz associated with the probable arrival of the 10 April transient feature.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one through three (15-17 Apr) as CME effects continue to wane and background conditions return.

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