[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with only low level B-class activity from Regions 2529 (N10W73, Cao/beta) and 2532 (N06E34, Hax/alpha). Region 2529 continued its dissipation of intermediate and trailer spots. Region 2532 has been stable with little change during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a chance for M-class flare activity (R1-Minor to R2-Moderate) on day one (19 Apr). Day two (20 Apr) is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class activity. As Region 2529 rotates around the west limb, activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class activity on day three (21 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at near background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the duration of the forecast period (19-21 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected nominal conditions. The total magnetic field strength averaged near 5 nT. The Bz component was predominantly northward throughout the day, with a maximum southward deviation to near -4 nT. Solar wind speeds were variable between 360-400 km/s for most of the day. Phi angle remained in the positive sector during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to become slightly enhanced on day one (19 Apr) under the influence of the northern, polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Day two (20 Apr) will likely see the weak influence of the CH HSS subside into nominal conditions by day three (21 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated periods of active conditions, under the weak influence of the anticipated CH HSS on day one (19 Apr). Day two (20 Apr) is expected to see quiet to unsettled conditions as CH HSS effects subside. Quiet conditions are expected on day three (21 Apr) under a nominal solar wind environment.

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