[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest flare of the period was a C2/1f at 01/0922 UTC from Region 2539 (N15E20, Cao/beta). The region developed a larger intermediate spot over the past 24 hours. Region 2536 (N17W05, Dai/beta) remained the largest sunspot group on the disk. Minor dissipation was observed in its intermediate spots during the day. The remaining regions on the Sun were relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days of the forecast period (01 - 03 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels three days of the forecast period (01 - 03 May).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected slightly enhanced total magnetic field strength. Bt was between 5-9 nT and the Bz was predominantly southward throughout the day. Solar wind speeds were between 360-420 km/s, averaging around 380 km/s. Phi was oriented in the negative (towards) sector until after 01/0800 UTC, when a transition into the positive (away) sector was observed.

Forecast: An additional enhancement in solar wind parameters is possible on day one (01 May) as the periphery of the 28 Apr CME passes by Earth. Solar wind enhancements are may persist into early on day two (02 May). A trend towards background conditions is expected mid-to late on day two through day three (03 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: On day one (01 May), the geomagnetic field may reach unsettled to active levels due to minor enhancements in the solar wind persisting coupled with possible effects the periphery of the 28 Apr CME. Unsettled to active conditions are likely early on day two (02 May). By mid to late on day two (02 May) through day three (03 May), mostly quiet conditions are likely as the solar wind environment returns to nominal conditions.

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