[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 10 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2542 (N09W04, Dao/beta) maintained its weak east-west inversion line, but displayed minor decay in its southern spot area. This region was responsible for a couple of low-level B-class flares, but was otherwise quiet throughout the period. Region 2543 (S05W09, Dai/beta) also produced a B-class flare as it exhibited slight overall growth with consolidation in its leader spots, but separation between its leader and follower spots. Region 2544 (N20E53, Cso/beta) exhibited slight growth as it rotated further onto the visible disk, but was mostly quiet during the period. New Region 2545 (S21E13, Cso/beta) was numbered and displayed slight growth over the summary period.

A 10 degree long filament, centered near N35E20, disappeared between 09/1403-1730 UTC. Analysis of SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery revealed the associated CME had a trajectory well north of the Sun-Earth plane. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days (10-12 May), primarily due to the increased flare potential of Regions 2542 and 2543.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 22,835 pfu at 10/0510 UTC, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on day one (10 May), high levels on day two (11 May), with very high levels possible on day three (12 May) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected continued negative polarity CH HSS effects. Solar wind speed ranged primarily between 600-700 km/s during the first half of the period. After approximately 10/0400 UTC, solar wind speeds decreased to average near 580 km/s. Total field strength held mostly steady between 4 to 6 nT, while the Bz component remained variable between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced as negative polarity CH HSS effects persist through day one (10 May) into day two (11 May). A gradual decrease late on day two with a further decrease on day three (12 May) is expected as CH HSS influences wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to active levels due to continued, but slightly less enhanced, CH HSS effects.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) storming is expected early on day one (10 May) due to continued CH HSS effects and periods of -Bz. A decrease to unsettled to active levels is expected the latter half of day one due to continued, but waning, CH HSS effects. The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to active on day two (11 May) as CH HSS effects continue to weaken. Day three (12 May) is likely to see waning CH HSS effects and subsequent, decreased geomagnetic responses of quiet to unsettled.

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