[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 19 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2544 (N22W63, Hsx/alpha) continued to decay yet managed to produce a B5 flare at 18/1758 UTC. Region 2546 (S07E13, Cho/beta) remained inactive and relatively unchanged throughout the period.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days (19-21 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and reached a peak flux of 987 pfu at 18/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (19-20 May), with an increase to normal to high levels by day three (21 May) following the onset of the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning positive polarity CH HSS effects. Solar wind speeds began the period near 500 km/s before slowly decreasing to average near 450 km/s for the remainder of the period. Total field strength was consistently near 5 nT throughout the period, while the Bz component fluctuated between 6 nT and -5 nT. The phi angle remained in a positive sector throughout the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue exhibiting slowly decreasing speeds until later on day one (19 May) when the IMF is expected to become enhanced due to a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS. The solar wind speed is expected to increase to speeds above 500 km/s late on day one into day two (20 May) as the CH HSS connects with Earth. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated into day three (21 May) due to continued CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period under unsettled conditions, decreased to quiet levels as CH HSS effects waned throughout the day, then returned to unsettled conditions near the end of the period, likely due to prolonged southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled until late in the day on day one (19 May) when the anticipated CIR, ahead of a CH HSS, is expected to begin influencing the magnetosphere. As a result, an increase to unsettled to active levels is expected. Minor storming (G1-Minor) periods are likely early on day two (20 May) as enhancements in the IMF and solar wind speed are anticipated, with primarily unsettled to active conditions for the remainder of the day. The elevated solar wind speed associated with the CH HSS is expected to continue causing mainly unsettled levels, with isolated periods of active conditions on day three (21 May).

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