[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to an isolated C1/Sf flare at 21/1400 UTC from Region 2546 (S08W28, Cho/beta). Region 2546 also produced multiple B-class flares this period and a B5 flare at 22/0921 UTC had an associated Type-IV radio emission. Region 2546 underwent minor decay this period as some of its periphery spots diminished to plage, but was largely unchanged from last period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (22-24 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels throughout the forecast period (22-24 May).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced this period under continued coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speeds were steady near 500 km/s until around 21/2000 UTC when speeds steadily increased to around 600-620 km/s by 22/0300 UTC where they remained steady through the remainder of the period. Total field strength values slowly decreased from a peak of 10 nT at 21/2000 UTC to around 5 nT by the end of the period. Bz briefly reached a maximum southward component of -7 nT early in the period but remained mostly neutral throughout the remainder of the period. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to be enhanced through day one (22 May) under a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain in the 450-550 km/s range. A slow decrease to nominal levels is expected on days two and three (23-24 May) as the HSS diminishes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled throughout the period despite an enhanced solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active to minor (G1) storm levels on day one (22 May) due to continued CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (23 May) followed by mostly quiet conditions on day three (24 May) as CH HSS influence wanes.

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